RESUMO
We formulate a sex-structured deterministic model to study the effects of varying HIV testing rates, condom use rates and ART adherence rates among Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) and, Adolescent Boys and Young Men (ABYM) populations in Kenya. Attitudes influencing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS control measures both positively and negatively were considered. Using the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) microdata we constructed our model, which we fitted to the UNAIDS-Kenya youth prevalence estimates to understand factors influencing Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. While highly efficacious combination control approach significantly reduces HIV/AIDS prevalence rates among the youth, the disease remains endemic provided infected unaware sexual interactions persist. Disproportional gender-wise attitudes towards HIV/AIDS control measures play a key role in reducing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. The female youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trend seems to be directly linked to increased male infectivity with decreased female infectivity while the male youth prevalence trend seems to be directly associated with increased female infectivity and reduced male infectivity.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Adesão à Medicação/psicologia , Cooperação do Paciente/psicologia , Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Atitude Frente a Saúde , Criança , Feminino , HIV/patogenicidade , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Humanos , Quênia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Programas de Rastreamento/tendências , Adesão à Medicação/estatística & dados numéricos , Cooperação do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Sexo Seguro/estatística & dados numéricos , Comportamento Sexual/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto JovemRESUMO
We present a model to investigate the effects of vector resistance to control strategies. The model captures the development of resistance as well as loss of resistance in mosquitoes and how these affect the progress in malaria control. Important thresholds were calculated from mathematical analysis and numerical results presented. Mathematical results reveal the existence of the disease free and endemic equilibria whose existence and stability depends on the control reproduction number, Rc. The disease persist when the Rc>1 and dies out when Rc<1. Control strategies use and adherence needs to be highly efficacious to thwart the effects of insecticides resistance. Moreover, it is not enough to just eradicate resistant mosquitoes.
